Tag-Archive for » DeathfromtheSkies! «

Desktop Project Part 23: What are the odds of a satellite re-entering over water?

[I'm approaching the Desktop Project endgame here; I'm almost out of pictures to post. I've done this every day for weeks, and my computer desktop is almost clean! Of course, more stuff keeps coming in, so I could do this forever. But that would be cheating. Sweet, sweet cheating.]

I’ve got something different for you today. Over the past few weeks I’ve posted an illustration, and a couple of dozen pictures, but no graphs! That’ll change now, and I think this particular set of plots is nifty.

Whenever a big satellite is about to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere — like UARS, or ROSAT, or Phobos-Grunt — the media freak out. You start seeing numbers being thrown about of the odds of getting hit by a chunk of flaming debris, and I get lots of panicked email and tweets. Then I have to point out to people that the Earth has a lot of real estate for a satellite to come down on, and of that, 3/4 is water. And most of that is Pacific Ocean. So really, the most likely scenario is a re-entry into the ...


The cloudy impact of Sikhote Alin

As soon as I read the caption of this lovely, if frigid, picture I knew I was going to like it: it’s an Envisat image of clouds forming east of the Russian Sikhote Alin mountains:

Sure, it’s pretty and all, but what’s so special about it?

In 1947, a rain of iron fell on this mountain range. A metallic asteroid the size of a school bus came in from space and exploded over Russia, showering the area with iron fragments. Named for the region, Sikhote Alin meteorites are highly valued: they are from a witnessed event, and are quite lovely. I own several, because I love them. My favorite is shaped like Darth Vader’s head!

A documentary was made about the Sikhote Alin fall, and it’s very cool; I wrote about it a few years back.

Isn’t that awesome? The meteorites those guys pick up so casually are worth thousands of dollars each today.

And in 1947, would those Russians poking through that forest have thought that sometime in the not-too-distant future, we’d routinely get an asteroid’s-eye-view of that very same region?

Image credit: ESA


Peering down onto an ancient Australian impact

When the first episode of Bad Universe aired, my Aussie friends complained about us choosing Sydney as the impact site of a small asteroid. We chose it because most other major cities have already been wiped out in TVs and movies, and the Sydney Opera House was so iconic we knew it would make a great visual (it did).

But as much as my friends complained, they had it easy. Check out this impact site just a few thousand kilometers west of Sydney:

[Click to impactenate.]

That’s Shoemaker (formerly Teague) Crater, an old impact crater about 30 km (19 miles) or so across. It’s a bit tough to see, but it’s the oddly wobbly circular shape right in the middle of this photo. Craters this big are hard to see from the ground, and are easier to identify from space; this shot was taken by an astronaut on the International Space Station. Like many large craters, it has multiple rings around it, probably formed as massive shock waves from the gigantic impact slammed through the ground. There’s a ridge at the bottom of the high-res photo that’s part of a heavily eroded outer ring. This crater is in the Outback, with mostly brown rock punctuated by colorful salty lakes.

I knew it was old just by glancing at it. Young craters look young: fresh, sharp rims, obvious outlines, sometimes surrounded by rays (long, straight features pointing away from the center of the crater, formed when plumes of ejected material collapse). This one is sloppy, vague, faded. Estimates of its age vary. It may be as young as 570 million years, or as old as 1.3 billion years! Some estimates put it even farther back along Earth’s timeline. Australia itself is ancient, with some parts having been around for 4 billion years. This crater dates back to the Precambrian age, when the most sophisticated lifeforms on Earth were soft multi-cellular microscopic creatures; the first true fossils of hard-shelled life were still millions of years in the future, even for the younger age range of the crater.

It’s hard to imagine that our lush green and blue Earth was once covered with craters like this. Heck, a few billion years ago this one would’ve been considered small! But two things have changed that: for one, the solar system had a lot more rocks to toss at us back then. Things have thinned out considerably in the past few billion years. Plus, the Earth isn’t static: it’s dynamic, with erosion and continental drift wiping out really old craters. Only a few survive now, the ones that happened to be in very stable locations like this one. Studying them is like having a direct line to the past, though muffled by time and change. Still, it’s an amazing look into what things were like before life took hold on land all those eons ago.

Oh, one more thing: if the name is familiar, it should be. It’s named after Eugene Shoemaker, a geologist who was a pioneer in studying and identifying impact craters like this one. He died in 1997 in a car accident in Australia, so it’s fitting a crater there was named in his memory.

Image credit: NASA


Related posts:

- Raising an impact in Africa
- New study finds giant impacts aren’t periodic
- "Amateur" geologist finds a South American crater
- Deforestation reveals an old scar
- Terra spots an impact on, um, Terra
- Impact
-


Fireball over Germany

[UPDATE: Turns out the fireball described below was the re-entry of the Soyuz booster that brought Expedition 30 up to the International Space Station a few days ago. Thanks to Marco Langbroek for alerting me to this!]

[Update 2 (19:08 GMT): More footage, and a picture in a Dutch paper. Tip o' the Whipple Shield to VirtualAstro and JHG Hendriks.]

Reports are coming in of a very bright fireball over Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands. It happened around 16:30 GMT (17:30 local time in that part of Europe) on December 24 (just a couple of hours ago as I write this). I heard of it when BA Bloggee Dave Grant sent me a note from Dusseldorf; he got video of it!

If you are in that area and saw it, you can report it to the International Meteor Organization or to The Latest Worldwide Meteor / Fireball Reports (note: I found that last site doing a bit of searching and I’m not familiar with it, so I don’t know how official it may or may not be. There are links in the sidebar there to other organizations). make sure you list your position as best you can, and what direction you were looking.

If you did see it, and have pictures or video, please leave a comment below with a link! It’s a holiday, but I can try to post some of the better shots/footage. The more actual footage there is, the better astronomers can trace both the direction from which it came, and the location of any possible meteorites.


My asteroid impact talk is now on TED!

I am extremely honored and pleased to announce that my talk, "An asteroid impact can ruin your whole day", is now featured on the TED website!

I gave this talk in September at TEDxBoulder, and I had a fantastic time. The talks were great, and it was wonderful to be a part of that.

However, I made two errors in this talk. One was logistical; I forgot to say that the "dinosaur space program" line is from science fiction writer Larry Niven, and for that I apologize to him — I usually do credit him, so I’m not sure what happened there.

The second error?

I blew it when I said April 13, 2036 was a Friday! It’s actually a Sunday. When the asteroid Apophis passes on April 13, 2029, though, that’s a Friday. I use that line as a joke — I’m hardly a triskadekaphobe — but I misspoke here. Mea culpa, tempus fugit, et per ardua ad asta.

However, some serious coolness: BA Twitter follower @RossHowell noticed that my video was on the TED iPad app, so I downloaded the app and took the picture here. It’s weird to be on my own iPad. It makes me feel, um, appley.

And finally, more cool news: I’ll be doing a live Q&A on the TED website! I’m talking with them now about it, and I’ll have the date and time soon — I’ll update this post and make sure I put it up on Twitter, Google+ and all that when I have more info.


Related posts:

- TED x ME
- Europeans are taking the asteroid threat seriously
- New study finds giant impacts aren’t periodic
- Repeat after me: Apophis is not a danger!


Texas talks OF DEATH

I’ll be giving my "Death from the Skies!" twice in Texas next week:

1) First, I’ll be speaking at Rice University in Houston on November 14th at 4:00 p.m. in Herzstein Hall’s amphitheater, then

2) I’ll be at the University of Texas – Pan American on November 15th for a 7:00 p.m. talk at the Student Union Theater. The UTPA event requires registration, so sign up! [Update: another page about the UTPA talk is here.]

The talk is about asteroid and comet impacts, and how one could ruin your whole day. I know there are BABloggees in Texas — you guys come out of the wordwork when I write about The Lone Star State — so come on by!

[Yeehaw!]


Fort Collins, Colorado talk OF DEATH

A quick note to folks in the Fort Collins, Colorado area: I’ll be giving my "Death from the Skies!" talk on Thursday, November 3 (tomorrow as I write this) at the Colorado State University campus there. The talk will be at the Lory Student Center East Ballroom at 7:00 p.m.

It’s open to the public [UPDATE: admission is FREE!], so if you’re in the area, come see me show how an asteroid impact can ruin your whole day!


TED x ME

In September 2011, I was honored to be on the speaker roster for TEDxBoulder, which is a local though independently-run version of the much-lauded TED talks. My talk was about saving the Earth from asteroid impacts, something I’ve spent a lot of time thinking and writing about.

The talk is online, and I’ve included it here:

The "We have a space program" line is from science fiction author Larry Niven, so I can’t take credit for it, though I modified it to add the "we can vote" bit. Also, this was the biggest audience I’ve ever spoken to, and it was a great crowd. I was almost last on the roster, but the audience was attentive and clearly enjoying themselves. It was a really fun, energizing, and mind-expanding evening.

The other talks that night are being put online as well. If you ever get a chance to attend a local TEDx conference, you should.


Spinning white dwarf bombs may lurk the galaxy

Some new research just released asks a question near and dear to me: are there thousands of spinning white dwarfs in our galaxy, just waiting to explode as they gradually slow their rotation?

The answer is very probably yes. Let me be clear, as I always must be when covering topics like this: we’re not in any real danger from these things. Space is vast, and supernovae are few. If these things were that volatile we wouldn’t be here to talk about them in the first place.

But it’s still a very cool scientific question, and actually a fairly simple concept. Here’s how it works.

Imagine a binary system of two stars like the Sun, orbiting each other. One star nears the end of its life, swells up into a red giant, and blows off its outer layers. After a few millions years, all that’s left is its core: a dense, hot ball called a white dwarf. The size of the Earth but with the mass of a star, white dwarfs are pretty weird. They have incredibly strong gravity, which wants to crush them down even further, but they are supported by the electric repulsion of electrons, which is a pretty mighty force. It’s an uneasy truce.

It’s made even uneasier by the other star. It too eventually swells up, and can start to dump matter onto the dwarf (like in the picture above). If enough mass piles up, the immense gravity of the dwarf can induce nuclear fusion. Sometimes the material explodes, flaring in brightness, and we get a nova. Other times, if enough matter piles up — making the total mass of the white dwarf a bit more than 1.4 times that of the Sun — the ignition of fusion can cause a runaway reaction in the star, disrupting it entirely. The white dwarf tears itself apart, and you get one of the biggest and most violent explosions in the Universe: a supernova.

But there’s a hitch. As the material falls from the red giant onto the white dwarf, it tends to spiral in due to angular momentum — the same idea of how an ice skater spins faster when they bring their arms in. This infalling matter can then make the white dwarf spin faster. But if it spins really fast, then the centrifugal force acts against the force of gravity, supporting the material*.

So what you get is a white dwarf with more than enough mass to explode, but its spin prevents the supernova from occurring. For a while, that is. Various factors slow the star down over time (for example, a magnetic field will accelerate particles in the stellar wind, acting a bit like a parachute dragging on the white dwarf). At some point — and this may take a billion years — the white dwarf slows to the point where centrifugal force can no longer win the fight against gravity. Fusion of the material begins, and BANG! Supernova.

The research I mentioned at the top of this post was theoretical — it’s hard to get a white dwarf into the lab — but it does explain a pesky problem we’ve been having. The explodey white dwarf supernova is characterized by a lack of hydrogen in it (the other kind of supernova, when the core collapses in a massive star, is lousy with hydrogen since the star’s outer layers are loaded with it). But we should see some hydrogen, since the other star is dumping it onto the white dwarf.

But the delayed time bomb scenario may fix that; if it takes a billion years for the dwarf to slow its spin, then by that time the other star may also have expelled all its outer layers, evolving into a white dwarf itself. The stream of hydrogen onto the first white dwarf would’ve cut off long before, so we don’t detect it.

If this idea is correct, we might be able to find such stars. Because they’re in binaries, we can use the orbital period to get the masses of the two stars (using math Newton invented four centuries ago!). If one of them is 1.5 times the mass of the Sun — more than enough to explode — we have a winner. It may also be possible to measure how rapidly the star is rotating by looking for a Doppler shift in its spectrum; the shift happens as one side of the star spins toward us and the other spins away. The hypothesis predicts any supercritical white dwarfs must be spinning pretty dang fast, which would be detectable.

According to the paper authors (PDF), there may be thousands of these systems in our Milky Way alone. The nearest would still be hundreds of light years away on average, way too far to hurt us (they’d have to be very roughly a hundred light years or closer before the explosion would affect us), but close enough to spot in surveys.

It may not take long, either: several surveys exist or will soon which could spot these ticking bombs. That’s exciting! We know a lot about supernovae, but there’s still a lot to learn (which is why everyone is studying the new and relatively close one in M101 right now) about the exact process. And since we gauge the measure of the size of the entire Universe on these types of supernovae, the more we know, the more we can learn about the Universe itself.


* Yes, I meant centrifugal. It’s the same thing as centripetal, just as seen in the frame of reference of the object spinning, so it makes more logical sense to use it here. Read that link before you leave a nerdrage comment, please.


Related posts:

- Supernova update: it’s peaking now
- Dwarf merging makes for an explosive combo
- The Universe is expanding at 73.8 +/- 2.4 km/sec/megaparsec. So there.


Blastr: So, you wanna blow up the Earth?

Blowing up a planet is hard. Really, really, really, really hard. In fact, if you had one "really" in that sentence for every Joule of energy it would take to make the Earth all explodey, you’d need more than 2 x 1032 of them. That’s a lot of "really"s.

I actually calculated that number using some basic physics and math, and then decided to write an entire article around it, which is now up on Blastr. It doesn’t matter how big a supervillain you are, blowing up a planet is next to impossible, despite the non-existence of Ceti Alpha 6.

There are ways of tearing a planet apart, actually, but I didn’t want the article to go on too long, and I figure exploding one versus ripping it apart are different things. Maybe I’ll do a follow up article. And really, why blow it up at all? If you want to kill everything on it, just set up a massive ad campaign for hair spray, sell the inhabitants a billion cans of the stuff, and then sit back and wait for them to destroy their ozone layer. Done and done.

[P.S. Today marks the 12th anniversary, ironically, of the Moon being blasted out of Earth orbit. Happy Breakaway day!]


Related posts:

- Blastr: My Favorite TV Scientists
- Blastroid
- Blastr: Other than that, Spock, how was the movie?
- Blastr: I Was A Zombie For Science
- Big budget movies that got their science right
- Master of Blastr